When Not to Trade

When Not to Trade

The discipline of sitting out

About this tag

Bitcoin is the deepest, most heavily instrumented market in crypto, and that depth changes how it has to be read. Spot ETF flows, perpetual funding, miner balances, and on-chain settlement all leave traces, and each trace moves price on a different lag. The notes under this tag work through those traces rather than the story wrapped around them.

Bitcoin market structure tends to lead the rest of the asset class. When BTC sweeps a multi-day low, alt books thin within minutes. When ETF creations stack for a week, the bid that absorbs spot selling shows up in funding before it shows up in headlines. Reading bitcoin first is less about reverence and more about timing - the structural signal is cleaner because the participant mix is wider and the order books are thicker.

Articles here focus on the observable mechanics:

  • Bitcoin ETF flows and how creations, redemptions, and APs reshape spot liquidity
  • BTC perpetual funding, basis, and the cash-and-carry trade that compresses it
  • Liquidation cascades, where leverage clusters, and why long and short flushes look different
  • Halving cycles, miner selling pressure, and the supply-side mechanics behind them
  • Spot-perp divergence as a read on who is actually moving price
  • Macro correlation breakdowns - when BTC trades with rates, when it stops, and what that signals

The framing is mechanical. Bitcoin analysis under this tag does not forecast price. It documents what flows, structure, and positioning are doing, and why the next move has the shape it does once it arrives. Read the notes as field observation, not as a thesis.