How Macro Events Affect Crypto: Correlation vs Causation
Macro events get blamed for every crypto move. But correlation isn't causation, and the difference changes how you read FOMC days and CPI prints.
Articles tagged "Bitcoin"
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Daily Note · 23 May: Flows Left Before Price Did
Spot ETFs bled over $2.26 billion across two weeks as Bitcoin fell below $75K - a sequence that reveals how positioning shifted well before the price made it obvious.
Daily Note · 20 May: Positioning Moved Before Sentiment Did
BTC recovered above $77K while derivatives traders pulled back - but Bitfinex longs hit a 2.5-year high during the same slide. Conviction and sentiment are pointing in opposite directions.
Daily Note · 19 May: Flows Split Before Price Did
The last 24 hours showed price holding while capital moved - Strategy absorbed $2 billion in BTC as fund flows rotated away from it, and a $76 million DeFi exploit tested how much structural stress the ecosystem can carry quietly.
Daily Note · 18 May: Institutions Split on Risk
Institutional conviction on crypto fractured visibly in the last 24 hours, with Goldman Sachs exiting XRP and Solana ETF positions at the same moment a trillion-dollar Italian bank moved in. Against a bearish macro backdrop and a Fear reading of 28, the split is the structural signal.
Quiet Edges
Notes on markets, tempo, and optionality
Why Exchanges Lose Bitcoin During Rallies
Why does Bitcoin leave exchanges during rallies? Because holders move coins to cold storage as conviction builds - shrinking the float available to sell.
Daily Note · 15 May: Distribution Meets Accumulation
Bitcoin has now rejected $82,000 three times in six weeks, with short-term holders selling into each bounce. The structural tension is that one of the largest accumulators on the planet is still acquiring through the same price ceiling.
Daily Note · 14 May: Infrastructure Built During Price Retreat
Bitcoin absorbed a technical ceiling and a PPI surprise simultaneously, triggering long liquidations. Underneath the price weakness, institutional infrastructure kept being built.
Daily Note · 13 May: Capital Rotated Without Leaving
The last 24 hours saw institutional capital shift inside crypto rather than away from it - Jane Street rotating from BTC ETFs into ETH funds while tokenized Treasuries crossed $15 billion.
Daily Note · 12 May: Rotation Quiet, Flow Louder
The ETH/BTC ratio slipped to a 10-month low today while Exodus converted $73M in bitcoin into stablecoin reserves - two flows that say more about market structure than any price target circulating today.