What Happens When Token Unlocks Hit Exchanges
What happens when token unlocks hit exchanges? Unlocked supply only moves price once it reaches an order book. The chain from wallet to liquidation cascade.
Articles
Long-form thinking on markets, systems, and behavior. Written to explain, not to persuade.
Daily Note · 3 Sep: Dollar Weakness, Flows Diverged
A softer dollar lifted crypto broadly, but ETF flows quietly rotated away from ETH and XRP just as global funds cut their dollar hedges to decade lows.
Daily Note · 2 Sep: Position Cutting, Not Panic
The last 24 hours showed coordinated de-risking rather than panic: BTC and ETH fell in tandem on hawkish Fed signaling while a Japanese treasury narrowed its book toward Bitcoin alone.
What Is a Collateral Ratio in DeFi Lending?
What is a collateral ratio in DeFi? It's the buffer between a loan and its collateral - and when it breaches, liquidations stop keeping pace with debt.
Daily Note · 1 Sep: Hawkish Speech, Bullish Consolidation
A hawkish Fed speech reversed the debasement trade in gold and the dollar, but Bitcoin absorbed the shock without breaking its range - even as ETF flows resumed and Singapore moved to tighten stablecoin reserves.
Why Realized Volatility Catches Traders Off Guard
Why realized volatility catches traders off guard: it is measured after the fact, so it spikes faster than options reprice and faster than position sizing adapts.
Daily Note · 28 Aug: Sentiment Outran the Tape
BTC sat flat near three-month highs while Fear & Greed pushed to 73, and beneath both, a wave of institutional infrastructure deals kept building without moving price.
Stablecoin Spreads: The Early Warning Signal Traders Ignore
Small deviations in stablecoin prices across exchanges often precede broader market stress, revealing where liquidity is thin before price action confirms it.
Daily Note · 27 Aug: Inflows Meet the Supply Wall
Bitcoin logged an eighth consecutive day of ETF inflows while testing its heaviest supply wall near $80,000, and Solana broke from the rest of the majors with a 7% move that had no clear headline behind it.
How Exchange Deposit Flows Predict Price Direction Before Candles Form
Exchange deposit flows often precede price moves by minutes to hours, because moving coins to an exchange is a structural prerequisite for selling, while candles only register the trade itself.