How Macro Events Affect Crypto: Correlation vs Causation
Macro events get blamed for every crypto move. But correlation isn't causation, and the difference changes how you read FOMC days and CPI prints.
Articles
Long-form thinking on markets, systems, and behavior. Written to explain, not to persuade.
Daily Note · 23 May: Flows Left Before Price Did
Spot ETFs bled over $2.26 billion across two weeks as Bitcoin fell below $75K - a sequence that reveals how positioning shifted well before the price made it obvious.
Why Orders Get Filled at the Worst Time
Orders seem to fill at the worst possible moment because of how market structure, liquidity, and execution mechanics interact - not random chance.
Daily Note · 22 May: Rotation Without Extension
Capital rotated into altcoins while BTC held a bearish regime and XRP accumulated on-chain without moving in price - a split that reveals where conviction is, and where it isn't.
Why Tokenomics Matter More Than Utility in Early Cycles
In early crypto cycles, token emission schedules and vesting cliffs shape price more than product roadmaps. Understanding supply mechanics is the structural edge most retail traders overlook.
Daily Note · 21 May: Derivatives Led, Prices Followed Late
The last 24 hours weren't defined by price action - they were defined by positioning. Options markets and valuation rotations moved before the headlines caught up.
Daily Note · 20 May: Positioning Moved Before Sentiment Did
BTC recovered above $77K while derivatives traders pulled back - but Bitfinex longs hit a 2.5-year high during the same slide. Conviction and sentiment are pointing in opposite directions.
Why Do Altcoins Pump Before They Dump?
Altcoins pump sharply right before a selloff because the pump is the dump's mechanism. Here is how liquidity harvesting works and how to spot the trap early.
Daily Note · 19 May: Flows Split Before Price Did
The last 24 hours showed price holding while capital moved - Strategy absorbed $2 billion in BTC as fund flows rotated away from it, and a $76 million DeFi exploit tested how much structural stress the ecosystem can carry quietly.
Cross-Exchange Arbitrage: How Price Discrepancies Get Erased
Price discrepancies across crypto exchanges don't persist for long. Here's the mechanical process that closes them - and what it reveals about how markets actually work.