Daily Note · 25 Sep: Rates Tested What Rotation Built
Bitcoin gave back its push above $87K as Treasury yields cleared 5%, but altcoins kept rotating and ETF flows stayed positive - a split between macro pressure and internal market strength.
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Bitcoin gave back its push above $87K as Treasury yields cleared 5%, but altcoins kept rotating and ETF flows stayed positive - a split between macro pressure and internal market strength.
Bitcoin gave back its retest of Monday's high as capital rotated into BCH and ZEC, while a $75M ether transfer from long-dormant FTX-linked wallets added a second, unrelated source of unease.
A strong payrolls print pushed Bitcoin below $80,000, but the pullback stayed shallow while ETF inflows kept climbing - a structural mismatch worth naming.
Bitcoin cleared $81,000 as privacy coins led a broad rally and ETF inflows hit their highest since January - but the structure underneath the move told a more divided story.
A softer dollar lifted crypto broadly, but ETF flows quietly rotated away from ETH and XRP just as global funds cut their dollar hedges to decade lows.
Exchange deposit flows often precede price moves by minutes to hours, because moving coins to an exchange is a structural prerequisite for selling, while candles only register the trade itself.
Bitcoin sat flat near $63,500 even as US spot ETFs pulled in over 14,000 BTC in five days, while a data breach and a data handover exposed how much trust still sits with a handful of custodians.
A wallet-level exploit and a steady corporate sell-down both pointed the same direction: smaller holders and disciplined sellers are both routing supply toward exchanges while price barely moves.
Bitcoin cleared local resistance on a five-day ETF inflow streak, but sentiment barely moved off Extreme Fear - a gap between who bought and who believes it.
Fear and Greed fell to Extreme Fear and US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their largest single-day outflow of the month, but BTC price barely moved. The gap between sentiment and price is the story.